Falling-knife track record
Every past signal and what it did next
Signals
13,125
Win rate
28%
Avg return
+5%
Median
-4%
Avg winner
+31%
Avg loser
-5%
Best
+1120%
Hit 2R
40%
Most signals are small losers; a minority of big winners carry the average — the right-tail profile of trend-following. That's why it's a size-small, let-winners-run screener. Realized outcomes under the strategy's exit model (2R stop / delayed structure trail from ~6mo / ~1yr (250-bar) horizon — tuned to ride multi-month rips). Survivorship-flattered, no costs.
Year
Sector
13,125 signals (showing the top 200 by return; full list loading)| Ticker | Sector | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Information Technology | 2025-08-18 | 52% | +1120% | 169.3 | 138 |
| SNDK | Information Technology | 2025-08-22 | 52% | +1072% | 152.7 | 134 |
| LITE | Information Technology | 2025-05-27 | 56% | +934% | 99.0 | 231 |
| LITE | Information Technology | 2025-07-17 | 56% | +703% | 121.1 | 196 |
| SNDK | Information Technology | 2025-12-30 | 36% | +534% | 36.9 | 109 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2020-11-06 | 43% | +469% | 54.7 | 223 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-02-28 | 94% | +356% | 20.7 | 121 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2019-08-29 | 61% | +346% | 49.6 | 244 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2024-02-14 | 36% | +341% | 30.7 | 207 |
| HOOD | Financials | 2024-11-05 | 44% | +304% | 45.3 | 204 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-05-16 | 68% | +299% | 20.1 | 121 |
| VST | Utilities | 2023-05-19 | 16% | +290% | 58.6 | 250 |
| TKO | Communication Services | 2017-08-11 | 17% | +286% | 67.1 | 250 |
| TKO | Communication Services | 2017-08-29 | 16% | +264% | 68.0 | 240 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2019-12-16 | 47% | +257% | 45.9 | 169 |
| TKO | Communication Services | 2017-09-13 | 16% | +257% | 76.5 | 230 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-05-23 | 68% | +251% | 18.9 | 174 |
| NFLX | Communication Services | 2012-10-26 | 52% | +248% | 34.6 | 154 |
| TER | Information Technology | 2025-05-28 | 54% | +246% | 35.0 | 210 |
| FCX | Materials | 2020-06-02 | 65% | +232% | 28.7 | 205 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2025-10-17 | 32% | +231% | 30.6 | 159 |
| TER | Information Technology | 2025-06-17 | 54% | +227% | 43.6 | 196 |
| STX | Information Technology | 2025-12-05 | 23% | +215% | 20.6 | 125 |
| NVDA | Information Technology | 2016-03-21 | 27% | +212% | 45.7 | 209 |
| TER | Information Technology | 2025-07-02 | 54% | +207% | 42.6 | 186 |
| MU | Information Technology | 2025-09-03 | 20% | +205% | 39.6 | 128 |
| APP | Information Technology | 2023-01-26 | 78% | +203% | 22.2 | 186 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2024-02-05 | 35% | +188% | 16.2 | 125 |
| SMCI | Information Technology | 2023-02-13 | 28% | +184% | 26.5 | 148 |
| DVN | Energy | 2020-11-05 | 49% | +182% | 20.4 | 167 |
| STX | Information Technology | 2025-12-12 | 23% | +182% | 22.1 | 120 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-06-03 | 41% | +182% | 22.6 | 164 |
| TPR | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-07-17 | 66% | +180% | 19.5 | 175 |
| WDC | Information Technology | 2025-12-12 | 26% | +178% | 21.8 | 120 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-06-11 | 41% | +176% | 24.0 | 158 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-06-02 | 68% | +170% | 16.4 | 167 |
| TPR | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-08-10 | 65% | +168% | 22.1 | 159 |
| SMCI | Information Technology | 2023-02-17 | 28% | +167% | 26.0 | 144 |
| TRGP | Energy | 2020-10-21 | 50% | +167% | 17.3 | 171 |
| TRGP | Energy | 2020-11-05 | 50% | +163% | 18.3 | 160 |
| DXCM | Health Care | 2019-10-15 | 23% | +163% | 27.1 | 224 |
| ALB | Materials | 2020-11-06 | 22% | +163% | 25.0 | 250 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-06-17 | 38% | +161% | 17.7 | 154 |
| AXON | Industrials | 2017-11-22 | 24% | +161% | 32.8 | 140 |
| MOS | Materials | 2020-07-23 | 70% | +157% | 17.7 | 224 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2021-04-16 | 38% | +156% | 18.5 | 121 |
| MOS | Materials | 2020-07-30 | 70% | +153% | 19.4 | 219 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-07-03 | 37% | +152% | 18.7 | 143 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2018-03-29 | 36% | +151% | 18.9 | 123 |
| DE | Industrials | 2020-06-01 | 42% | +149% | 19.0 | 240 |
| FANG | Energy | 2020-11-11 | 60% | +149% | 15.7 | 168 |
| PSKY | Communication Services | 2020-07-23 | 74% | +149% | 29.2 | 170 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2018-04-06 | 36% | +149% | 19.5 | 123 |
| NVDA | Information Technology | 2023-12-13 | 22% | +147% | 30.4 | 147 |
| META | Communication Services | 2022-12-22 | 52% | +146% | 20.9 | 162 |
| PWR | Industrials | 2020-07-15 | 19% | +145% | 19.5 | 208 |
| BBY | Consumer Discretionary | 2013-02-28 | 40% | +145% | 19.1 | 184 |
| NVDA | Information Technology | 2023-01-23 | 44% | +144% | 19.6 | 132 |
| CVNA | Consumer Discretionary | 2018-04-13 | 36% | +143% | 19.0 | 121 |
| ALB | Materials | 2020-10-15 | 22% | +143% | 17.9 | 250 |
| DELL | Information Technology | 2026-03-20 | 34% | +142% | 22.3 | 54 |
| NFLX | Communication Services | 2012-12-07 | 39% | +140% | 19.4 | 127 |
| VRT | Industrials | 2023-05-01 | 33% | +139% | 19.2 | 124 |
| SNDK | Information Technology | 2026-03-26 | 29% | +138% | 11.9 | 50 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-08-19 | 22% | +138% | 16.6 | 121 |
| PSKY | Communication Services | 2020-08-03 | 72% | +137% | 34.3 | 163 |
| META | Communication Services | 2022-12-05 | 52% | +136% | 20.5 | 175 |
| COIN | Financials | 2023-11-06 | 39% | +136% | 19.3 | 121 |
| BLDR | Industrials | 2011-12-21 | 61% | +135% | 14.4 | 145 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2020-06-03 | 47% | +135% | 9.5 | 188 |
| NVDA | Information Technology | 2010-08-25 | 53% | +135% | 19.3 | 125 |
| UAL | Industrials | 2024-09-03 | 34% | +132% | 22.8 | 121 |
| AMD | Information Technology | 2016-03-17 | 43% | +131% | 17.1 | 166 |
| COIN | Financials | 2023-11-08 | 39% | +131% | 18.8 | 125 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-09-04 | 22% | +126% | 19.5 | 141 |
| FTNT | Information Technology | 2010-07-26 | 23% | +125% | 18.2 | 167 |
| INTC | Information Technology | 2026-02-23 | 23% | +125% | 14.0 | 73 |
| APP | Information Technology | 2023-04-20 | 52% | +125% | 21.2 | 128 |
| FTNT | Information Technology | 2010-08-02 | 23% | +124% | 19.8 | 162 |
| COF | Financials | 2020-08-25 | 64% | +123% | 19.8 | 205 |
| NVDA | Information Technology | 2023-01-26 | 44% | +123% | 17.4 | 129 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2025-09-15 | 32% | +122% | 19.6 | 135 |
| ANET | Information Technology | 2016-08-05 | 20% | +118% | 27.2 | 247 |
| FTNT | Information Technology | 2010-08-23 | 23% | +118% | 20.8 | 147 |
| PSKY | Communication Services | 2020-09-03 | 24% | +118% | 34.5 | 140 |
| LYB | Materials | 2010-08-02 | 36% | +117% | 29.0 | 198 |
| BBY | Consumer Discretionary | 2013-03-06 | 40% | +115% | 16.2 | 180 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2025-05-20 | 60% | +115% | 12.6 | 161 |
| HII | Industrials | 2013-01-22 | 20% | +115% | 31.4 | 250 |
| NEM | Materials | 2025-05-19 | 16% | +115% | 23.0 | 208 |
| WBD | Communication Services | 2025-09-11 | 22% | +114% | 19.8 | 136 |
| META | Communication Services | 2013-07-01 | 30% | +113% | 22.5 | 144 |
| FITB | Financials | 2020-07-31 | 64% | +113% | 14.4 | 216 |
| ALB | Materials | 2025-10-03 | 19% | +112% | 15.8 | 154 |
| GILD | Health Care | 2012-07-16 | 23% | +112% | 35.6 | 220 |
| PHM | Consumer Discretionary | 2012-06-18 | 30% | +111% | 11.9 | 168 |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | 2024-05-28 | 48% | +111% | 19.6 | 174 |
| TMUS | Communication Services | 2010-05-11 | 32% | +111% | 20.3 | 250 |
| ON | Information Technology | 2025-12-09 | 30% | +111% | 16.4 | 123 |
| LYB | Materials | 2010-08-16 | 36% | +110% | 30.9 | 188 |
| DXCM | Health Care | 2019-06-10 | 31% | +109% | 20.9 | 188 |
| GM | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-08-06 | 60% | +109% | 18.8 | 192 |
| COIN | Financials | 2023-11-14 | 39% | +108% | 16.9 | 123 |
| CIEN | Information Technology | 2025-12-22 | 22% | +108% | 19.6 | 114 |
| BLDR | Industrials | 2012-01-09 | 61% | +108% | 14.9 | 134 |
| GM | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-07-23 | 60% | +107% | 16.4 | 202 |
| FSLR | Information Technology | 2020-06-01 | 53% | +107% | 15.0 | 169 |
| BLDR | Industrials | 2022-12-08 | 29% | +107% | 16.4 | 172 |
| HOOD | Financials | 2024-09-17 | 44% | +106% | 22.4 | 121 |
| NXPI | Information Technology | 2010-11-16 | 27% | +105% | 19.5 | 137 |
| APO | Financials | 2012-07-19 | 29% | +104% | 26.4 | 211 |
| SPG | Real Estate | 2020-10-02 | 37% | +104% | 12.7 | 191 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2023-11-13 | 53% | +103% | 15.7 | 174 |
| FITB | Financials | 2020-08-10 | 63% | +101% | 15.3 | 210 |
| FITB | Financials | 2020-08-25 | 57% | +101% | 15.7 | 199 |
| FCX | Materials | 2020-09-28 | 16% | +101% | 17.1 | 123 |
| COF | Financials | 2020-10-05 | 33% | +100% | 15.5 | 177 |
| FDX | Industrials | 2020-06-01 | 47% | +100% | 15.9 | 150 |
| NFLX | Communication Services | 2010-08-12 | 26% | +100% | 14.1 | 247 |
| APA | Energy | 2021-09-03 | 36% | +100% | 15.1 | 160 |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | 2024-06-26 | 48% | +100% | 19.1 | 154 |
| MS | Financials | 2020-11-03 | 16% | +99% | 18.1 | 220 |
| AMAT | Information Technology | 2020-05-28 | 47% | +98% | 12.9 | 193 |
| HII | Industrials | 2012-12-17 | 20% | +98% | 23.6 | 250 |
| CIEN | Information Technology | 2026-01-28 | 17% | +97% | 13.0 | 90 |
| DASH | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-05-18 | 27% | +96% | 12.4 | 209 |
| TSLA | Consumer Discretionary | 2013-06-25 | 23% | +96% | 11.7 | 201 |
| APA | Energy | 2021-09-23 | 36% | +96% | 15.0 | 147 |
| NXPI | Information Technology | 2010-11-01 | 27% | +96% | 21.4 | 148 |
| ADI | Information Technology | 2025-05-28 | 36% | +95% | 13.3 | 251 |
| NXPI | Information Technology | 2010-12-02 | 27% | +94% | 22.0 | 126 |
| AMAT | Information Technology | 2025-05-27 | 38% | +94% | 14.8 | 174 |
| QCOM | Information Technology | 2020-06-01 | 39% | +94% | 14.5 | 172 |
| LRCX | Information Technology | 2025-12-04 | 19% | +93% | 12.8 | 126 |
| FFIV | Information Technology | 2010-05-24 | 17% | +93% | 12.4 | 154 |
| RJF | Financials | 2020-07-09 | 47% | +93% | 10.6 | 230 |
| CBRE | Real Estate | 2020-09-25 | 51% | +93% | 15.7 | 179 |
| COF | Financials | 2020-11-06 | 33% | +92% | 16.0 | 153 |
| SWKS | Information Technology | 2010-06-04 | 24% | +92% | 13.6 | 193 |
| CAT | Industrials | 2025-06-04 | 35% | +92% | 20.6 | 205 |
| GM | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-08-17 | 59% | +91% | 17.9 | 185 |
| BG | Consumer Staples | 2020-08-10 | 49% | +91% | 17.5 | 212 |
| AMAT | Information Technology | 2025-11-25 | 16% | +91% | 15.3 | 132 |
| MET | Financials | 2020-06-01 | 57% | +91% | 9.6 | 250 |
| STX | Information Technology | 2020-09-08 | 21% | +91% | 30.2 | 198 |
| MRNA | Health Care | 2021-05-07 | 38% | +91% | 16.9 | 126 |
| AES | Utilities | 2020-06-19 | 62% | +91% | 11.8 | 178 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2023-11-21 | 53% | +90% | 14.8 | 168 |
| OXY | Energy | 2022-01-25 | 27% | +90% | 15.9 | 162 |
| CBRE | Real Estate | 2020-08-17 | 54% | +90% | 13.6 | 207 |
| APO | Financials | 2012-09-11 | 28% | +90% | 23.7 | 174 |
| FIX | Industrials | 2020-07-23 | 45% | +88% | 14.1 | 228 |
| REGN | Health Care | 2010-12-01 | 33% | +88% | 21.2 | 163 |
| EA | Communication Services | 2012-12-24 | 19% | +88% | 17.4 | 187 |
| GE | Industrials | 2020-10-16 | 31% | +88% | 12.9 | 126 |
| CRWD | Information Technology | 2023-09-06 | 16% | +88% | 15.2 | 145 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2023-11-28 | 53% | +87% | 16.7 | 164 |
| OKE | Energy | 2020-10-30 | 50% | +87% | 11.5 | 178 |
| PNC | Financials | 2020-06-26 | 51% | +87% | 10.5 | 241 |
| RJF | Financials | 2020-07-30 | 47% | +87% | 12.6 | 215 |
| FDX | Industrials | 2020-06-16 | 47% | +87% | 16.1 | 139 |
| TSN | Consumer Staples | 2012-09-17 | 29% | +86% | 20.0 | 250 |
| WSM | Consumer Discretionary | 2020-09-29 | 20% | +86% | 15.6 | 160 |
| BLDR | Industrials | 2011-12-08 | 61% | +86% | 11.1 | 121 |
| VTRS | Health Care | 2025-06-24 | 45% | +86% | 17.8 | 236 |
| EOG | Energy | 2020-11-11 | 49% | +86% | 10.1 | 168 |
| GNRC | Industrials | 2019-04-09 | 22% | +86% | 28.0 | 224 |
| FSLR | Information Technology | 2012-11-02 | 30% | +86% | 12.9 | 157 |
| INCY | Health Care | 2013-02-13 | 25% | +85% | 18.0 | 165 |
| NXPI | Information Technology | 2013-06-14 | 25% | +85% | 17.8 | 204 |
| HWM | Industrials | 2020-06-03 | 67% | +85% | 7.3 | 160 |
| DASH | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-06-02 | 27% | +85% | 12.8 | 199 |
| WAT | Health Care | 2020-10-16 | 22% | +84% | 20.9 | 231 |
| MOS | Materials | 2021-08-26 | 26% | +83% | 19.6 | 176 |
| SWKS | Information Technology | 2010-06-17 | 24% | +83% | 13.6 | 184 |
| BLDR | Industrials | 2020-06-01 | 68% | +83% | 8.4 | 166 |
| NEM | Materials | 2015-11-12 | 45% | +83% | 10.7 | 133 |
| CF | Materials | 2021-09-22 | 24% | +82% | 20.6 | 158 |
| CMG | Consumer Discretionary | 2013-01-17 | 44% | +82% | 17.2 | 228 |
| VTRS | Health Care | 2025-06-11 | 48% | +82% | 14.9 | 244 |
| DXCM | Health Care | 2014-10-24 | 16% | +82% | 16.4 | 208 |
| MOS | Materials | 2021-09-03 | 26% | +82% | 20.4 | 170 |
| DVN | Energy | 2021-09-03 | 24% | +81% | 14.8 | 132 |
| MOS | Materials | 2021-09-21 | 26% | +81% | 22.1 | 159 |
| APP | Information Technology | 2023-12-28 | 21% | +81% | 16.7 | 149 |
| HPQ | Information Technology | 2020-07-23 | 47% | +81% | 14.4 | 214 |
| SMCI | Information Technology | 2013-06-24 | 30% | +81% | 15.7 | 179 |
| DAL | Industrials | 2013-04-11 | 19% | +80% | 12.0 | 165 |
| DAL | Industrials | 2012-11-06 | 31% | +80% | 15.3 | 142 |
| COHR | Information Technology | 2023-12-04 | 53% | +80% | 16.6 | 160 |
| EXR | Real Estate | 2020-08-07 | 37% | +80% | 16.5 | 250 |
| HPQ | Information Technology | 2020-08-04 | 47% | +80% | 16.1 | 206 |
| RJF | Financials | 2020-07-17 | 47% | +79% | 11.3 | 224 |
| CBOE | Financials | 2012-07-24 | 17% | +79% | 26.1 | 250 |
| ZBRA | Information Technology | 2020-06-26 | 42% | +79% | 13.8 | 187 |
| DASH | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-06-07 | 27% | +79% | 11.7 | 196 |
| SMCI | Information Technology | 2013-06-11 | 30% | +78% | 15.2 | 188 |
| TTD | Communication Services | 2023-01-25 | 49% | +78% | 10.1 | 135 |
| ADI | Information Technology | 2025-06-17 | 36% | +77% | 17.2 | 244 |
| DECK | Consumer Discretionary | 2023-06-13 | 16% | +77% | 14.5 | 201 |